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AOSC Seminar
March 7, 2019

Title: Bridging the Weather-To-Climate Prediction Gap


Annarita Mariotti
NOAA Climate Program Office
Abstract:  

The energy, water management, agriculture, and emergency response sectors, along with many others, are eager to have predictions that go beyond 2-week weather forecasts and extend up to seasonal climate outlooks. However, predictions over this time frame have been lacking because of the inherent unpredictability of the weather more than 2 weeks ahead, before changes in slower climate phenomena kick in to modulate the weather.

Scientists across the broad meteorological community have been engaging in a robust set of research activities to address this weather-climate prediction gap, at the so-called subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) range. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) S2S Prediction Task Force has made several significant contributions to overall progress, highlighting the interplay of physical processes that are key for predictions, examining their simulation in numerical models, and pioneering the development of new prediction methodologies. More broadly, there is active research and development to address the weather-to-climate prediction gap.

This seminar will provide a personal perspective on the overall challenge and the rationale to make progress, and highlight some initial results by the research community in the context of future international plans.