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Departmental Seminar
April 5, 2018

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in Action

Emily Becker
NOAA/CPC and Innovim

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a collaboration between several modeling centers from the US and Canada, has been producing real-time monthly-mean and seasonal anomaly forecasts regularly since August, 2011. The NMME system has included between six and eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models for real-time forecasting, and features a database of approximately 30-year retrospective forecasts from twelve models in total. This talk will focus on NMME research and operations, including some background on multi-model ensembles, bias correction, model characteristics, deterministic and probabilistic forecasting, and developments in the NMME real-time forecasting system. The results of research studies into forecast skill and potential predictability of 2 m temperature, precipitation rate, and sea-surface temperature using the NMME database of retrospective forecasts will be discussed.