AOSC Seminar
November 3, 2016

NOAA’s Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)


Ivanka Stajner
NOAA/NWS
Abstract:  

NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) established a Research to Operations (R2O) initiative to create an advanced Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The goal of this system is to provide more reliable forecast guidance, extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days, improve hurricane track and intensity prediction, as well as position NWS for next generation high performance computing.

The proposed NGGPS coupled model will include the following components: a single atmospheric dynamic core, a suite of atmospheric physics as well as modeling components for ocean, wave, sea ice, land surface, aerosol and atmospheric composition. NGGPS prediction system will include data assimilation, ensemble and post-processing capabilities. Planned NGGPS verification system and validation approach will be used to evaluate individual system components as well as component interactions and the system as a whole.

This NGGPS effort engages a wider scientific community in the planning and development process. Planning teams for NGGPS areas include experts outside NWS, from the federal scientific community and beyond. Grant awards based on two NGGPS Federal Funding Opportunities were made for university Principal Investigator led developments that are in progress. All NGGPS modeling components are envisioned to be community models. A recent NGGPS accomplishment is the selection of NOAA GFDL’s Finite volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3) with non-hydrostatic capability as the dynamical core for NGGPS. System integration of FV3 dynamical core with physics and data assimilation components is underway. This talk will present an overview of NGGPS status and plans.