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*** 5th Rasmusson Lecture ***
March 31, 2016

Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Models: Entering a Golden Age of Research

Isaac Held

In the 1970s-1990s, improving simulations of the macroturbulence of the midlatitude troposphere in global atmospheric models gradually provided a framework, through comprehensive and idealized modeling, for studying the dynamics underlying extratropical storm statistics and their influence on the general circulation.

A similar transition with global climate model simulations playing a central role in tropical cyclone research is occurring today. As in the extratropical case, some parts of the problem will be more recalcitrant than others, and research will continue for decades.  But I will provide a few examples to argue that the time is ripe for rapid advances in our understanding of tropical cyclone statistics through global climate modeling, once again combining comprehensive and idealized simulations.