4. Forecast Applications

Icing » Icing Forecasting Closing Remarks

Photo mosaic of ice crystals

It should be noted that assessment of icing potential from a skew-T plot, while providing valuable information, can not give a complete picture of icing potential. For instance, the above methodology has not addressed issues regarding the intensity of icing. Empirical studies suggest light icing tends to occur with slightly cold or neutral advection. Moderate icing tends to occur with strong cold advection, or in environments where building cumulus clouds are expected. With that in mind, a single sounding should always be used in combination with observed or model forecast temperature and wind fields to get a more complete assessment of temperature advection. And in fact, it is always preferable to combine skew-T sounding analysis with analyses of observational and model output fields when producing an icing forecast.

COMET modules

For a more complete treatment of aviation icing, see the following COMET modules: