Convection » Convective Wind Gusts Introduction

There are a number of methods available by which to forecast convective wind gusts. Here we will focus our attention on two empirical methods that have been used for over 30 years by the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). In developing these methods, forecasters relied on evidence that most convective wind gusts at the surface appear to result from downdraft air originating in the lower portion of the thunderstorm. Both of the methods discussed here attempt to account for temperature differentials associated with evaporatively cooled, convective downdrafts to provide a realistic prediction of convective wind gusts. The forecast direction is determined by the mean layer wind direction 10,000-14,000 ft (3.0-4.3 km) above the surface.