4. Forecast Applications

Convection » Air Mass Thunderstorms Convective Forecast Exercise: Task 3

If you haven't already, open the Interactive Skew-T with this sounding)

Use the click and drag feature to modify the sounding to reflect the afternoon surface conditions. Then assess the convective potential to make a forecast.

Write your forecast in the text box, then click Done to see an expert opinion.

Your Forecast:


Answer:

Skew-T showing answer to tasks 1 and 3 for air mass thunderstorm forecast exercise

Expert Opinion:

This sounding profile has been modified to reflect the solar heating and the moisture advection into the area.

Note that the convective temperatureconvective temperature has been reached. Although the K indexK index of 20-25 indicates only a moderate probability of convection, other parameters point to a good possibility of thunderstorms, possibly severe. The large positive shaded area indicates a high CAPECAPE value greater than 3000 J/kg. Furthermore, an LILI value less than -7, Total Totals indexTotal Totals index greater than 55, and SWEATSWEAT greater than 400 also indicate severe convection during the afternoon.