Skew-T Mastery
Produced by The COMET
®
Program
Table of Contents
Chapters
1. Skew-T Description
2. Parameters
3. Stability
4. Forecast Applications
4. Forecast Applications
Introduction
Boundary Layer
Maximum Temperature
Forecasting Maximum Temperature, U.S. Air Force Method
Question
Geographic Limitations
Short-term Variations
Seasonal Variations
Other Methods
Convection
Air Mass Thunderstorms
Introduction
Forecasting Air Mass Thunderstorms
Skew-T Parameters
Convective Forecast Exercise: Task 1
Convective Forecast Exercise: Task 2
Convective Forecast Exercise: Task 3
Severe Thunderstorms
Introduction
Skew-T Parameters and Convective Indices
Severe Weather Sounding Types - Type I
Type II Sounding
Type III Sounding
Type IV Sounding (Inverted-V)
Sounding Type Question
Forecast Exercise: Question 1
Forecast Exercise: Question 2
Forecast Exercise: Question 3
What Happened?
Convective Wind Gusts
Introduction
AFWA T1 Method
Forecast Exercise: T1 Method
AFWA T2 Method
Forecast Exercise: T2 Method
Forecast Exercise: Direction of the Maximum Wind Gust
Microbursts: Wet vs. Dry
Introduction
Wet Microbursts
Dry Microbursts
Forecasting Microburst Wind Gusts
Microburst Forecasting - Question 1
Microburst Forecasting - Question 2
Microburst Forecasting - Question 3
Hail
Forecasting Hail Occurrence
Forecast Exercise: Qualitative Skew-T Assessment
Hail/No Hail Nomogram
Forecast Exercise: Hail/No Hail Nomogram
Forecast Exercise: Hail/No Hail Nomogram 2
Fawbush-Miller Method for Determining Maximum Hail Size
Forecast Exercise: Hail Size - 1
Forecast Exercise: Hail Size - 2
Forecast Exercise: Hail Size - 3
Summary
Heavy Precip./Flash Floods
Forecasting Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods
Forecasting Flash Floods
Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Heavy Precipitation
Example 1: Central U.S.
Example 2: Mid-Atlantic States (east of the Appalachian Mountains)
Example 3: Front Range of the Rocky Mountains
Example 4: Tropical Islands During the Cool Season
Forecast Exercise
Winter Weather
Precipitation Type
Introduction and Relevant Parameters
0000 UTC Day 1
0000 UTC Day 1 (Hour 0)
1200 UTC Day 1 (Hour 12)
12-hour Forecast valid 0000 UTC Day 2 (Hour 24)
Observations: 0000 UTC Day 2 (Hour 24)
12-hour Forecast valid 1200 UTC Day 2 (Hour 36)
Observations: 1200 UTC Day 2 (Hour 36)
12-hour Forecast valid 0000 UTC Day 3 (Hour 48)
Observations: 0000 UTC Day 3 (Hour 48)
Summary
Turbulence
Introduction
Introduction
Intensity of Turbulence
Thermal Turbulence
Introduction
Skew-T Procedure
Question
Icing
Icing Forecasting
Forecasting Icing Using the Skew-T
Forecasting Icing Occurrence
Icing Type
Icing Example 1
Icing Example 1 (continued)
Icing Example 2
Icing Example 2 (continued)
Closing Remarks
Interactive Skew-T
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Quiz
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References
Convection » Microbursts: Wet vs. Dry
Microburst Forecasting - Question 2
What type of microbursts would you expect?
(Select the best answer.)
a)
Wet
b)
Dry
The correct answer is:
b)
Dry microbursts
Although a shallow moist layer occurs near the surface, we expect this to mix out, resulting in a very dry lower troposphere. A dry layer at low levels, combined with a moist layer at mid-levels, yields a classical inverted-V or dry microburst sounding. High-based convection will result in precipitation that evaporates before reaching the surface (virga). Evaporatively-cooled, negatively-buoyant air will accelerate downward as a strong downdraft or dry microburst.
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