CONTENTS
Project TOP
General Information
WRF-LETKF
WRF-LETKF system
Miyoshi TOP
Miyoshi top page
LETKF code
Link to Google code
SUPPORTED BY
Data Assimilation and Predictability Studies for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
SUPPORTED BY

ONR GRANT N000141010149 (2009-2012)

About the project

executive summary

In this project, an interdisciplinary team composed of experienced experts in the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) observations, in modeling, and in advanced data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) will carry out experiments focused on the understanding and improving of the forecast of TC lifecycle evolution and intensity. This project focuses on both largescale environment and mesoscale phenomena in the TC system, which are major components responsible for intensity change, using several major codes already developed: the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as CFES (CGCM for the Earth Simulator), the widely used mesoscale model known as WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), and the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) that is probably the most advanced data assimilation method for realistic systems and that was coded and tested by PI Miyoshi at Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). Because of high computational demands of this project, it is important to emphasize that all experiments with CFES will be carried out with the Earth Simulator, one of the largest supercomputer systems in Japan. Two major challenges in TC intensity forecasting are the general lack of observations in the vicinity of TCs and the adaptive representation of the forecast error covariance. In this project, both challenges will be addressed to improve TC intensity forecasting.

members

  • Takemasa Miyoshi (PI)
  • Eugenia Kalnay (Co-PI)
  • Kayo Ide (Co-PI)
  • Craig Bishop (Co-PI)
  • Takeshi Enomoto (Co-I)
  • Nobumasa Komori (Co-I)
  • Shu-Chih Yang (Co-I)
  • Hong Li (Co-I)
  • Tetsuo Nakazawa (Collaborator)
  • Peter Black (Collaborator)
  • Masaru Kunii (Researcher)

Achievements

system developments

  • An LETKF system with heterogeneous grids is now under development and near completion (as of 10/19/2011). This will allow efficient higher-resolution experiments with a two-way-nested WRF setup with multiple domains.
  • In the beginning of 2011, an ensemble sensitivity system based on Liu and Kalnay (2008) and Li et al. (2009) has been developed to estimate the impact of observations on forecasts.
  • In the summer of 2010, the WRF-LETKF system has been developed.
  • On April 14, 2010, the FORTRAN90 code of the new adaptive covariance inflation scheme was uploaded to the public domain at the google code repository (revision 47).

peer-reviewed publications (10 accepted)

    - accepted -
  1. Kalnay, E., Y. Ota, T. Miyoshi, and J. Liu, 2012: A Simpler Formulation of Forecast Sensitivity to Observations: Application to Ensemble Kalman Filters. Tellus A, in press.
  2. Kunii, M. and T. Miyoshi, 2012: Including uncertainties of sea surface temperature in an ensemble Kalman filter: a case study of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008). Weather and Forecasting, in press. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00136.1
  3. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii, 2012: Using AIRS retrievals in the WRF-LETKF system to improve regional numerical weather prediction. Tellus, 64A, 18408. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18408
  4. Miyoshi, T., E. Kalnay, and H. Li, 2012: Estimating and including observation error correlations in data assimilation. Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering. doi:10.1080/17415977.2012.712527
  5. Yang, S.-C., E. Kalnay, and T. Miyoshi, 2012: Improving EnKF Spinup for Typhoon Assimilation and Prediction. Weather and Forecasting, 27, 878-897. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00153.1
  6. Amezcua, J., K. Ide, C. H. Bishop, and E. Kalnay, 2012: Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters. Tellus, 64A, 18039. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18039
  7. Kunii, M., T. Miyoshi, and E. Kalnay, 2012: Estimating the Impact of Real Observations in Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1975-1987. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00205.1
  8. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii, 2012: The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Experiments with Real Observations. Pure and Appl. Geophys., 169, 321-333. doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0373-4
  9. Miyoshi, T., 2011: The Gaussian Approach to Adaptive Covariance Inflation and Its Implementation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1519-1535. doi:10.1175/2010MWR3570.1
  10. Miyoshi, T., T. Komori, H. Yonehara, R. Sakai, and M. Yamaguchi, 2010: Impact of Resolution Degradation of the Initial Condition on Typhoon Track Forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1568-1573. doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222392.1

conference presentations (22 orals with 5 invited, 6 posters)

    - 2012 -
  1. Miyoshi, T., E. Kalnay, Y. Ota, M. Kunii: Observation impact estimates with an ensemble-based approach. Invited presentation, International Symposium On Data Assimilation, German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany, October 8-11, 2012.
  2. Enomoto, T., N. Komori, T. Miyoshi, B. Taguchi: Atmospheric data assimilation with a coupled atmosphere--ocean model. Oral presentation, Asia Oceania Geosicences Society - American Geophysical Union (Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting) Joint Assembly, Singapore, August 13-17, 2012.
  3. Lien, G.-Y., E. Kalnay, and T. Miyoshi: Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Precipitation with a Simplified AGCM. Poster presentation, The 5th EnKF Workshop, Albany, NY, May 21-24, 2012.
  4. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Study on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System. Poster presentation, The 5th EnKF Workshop, Albany, NY, May 21-24, 2012.
  5. Komori, N., T. Enomoto, T. Miyoshi, and B. Taguchi: Development of CFES-LETKF Ensemble Data Assimilation System. Poster presentation, 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis, Silver Spring, MD, May 7-11, 2012.
  6. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Experimental Regional Reanalysis with the WRF-based Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) Using Two-Way-Nested Heterogeneous Grids. Poster presentation, 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis, Silver Spring, MD, May 7-11, 2012.
  7. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Data Assimilation Studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System. Oral presentation, 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Jacksonville, FL, April 15-20, 2012.
  8. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Assimilating AIRS Retrievals with the WRF-LETKF System. Oral presentation, the 16th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, New Orleans, January 22-26, 2012.
  9. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: LETKF with Heterogeneous Grids of Two-Way Nested WRF Model. Oral presentation, the 16th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, New Orleans, January 22-26, 2012.
  10. Kunii, M., T. Miyoshi and E. Kalnay: Estimating Impact of Real Observations Using the WRF-Letkf. Oral presentation, the 16th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, New Orleans, January 22-26, 2012.

    - 2011 -
  11. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Data Assimilation and Predictability Studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System. Oral presentation, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 5-9, 2011.
  12. Komori, N., T. Enomoto, T. Miyoshi, and B. Taguchi: Development of CFES-LETKF ensemble data assimilation system. Oral presentation, 4th OFES International Workshop and 2nd ESC-IPRC Joint Workshop on Computationally-Intensive Modeling of the Climate System, Honolulu, December 1-2, 2011.
  13. Enomoto, T., T. Miyoshi, Q. Moteki, J. Inoue, M. Hattori, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Komori, and S. Yamane: ALERA2: AFES-LETKF ensemble reanalysis 2. Invited presentation, AS17-A010, AOGS 8th Annual Meeting, Taipei, Taiwan, August 8-12, 2011.
  14. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii, Data assimilation and predictability studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using the WRF-LETKF system. Oral presentation, IUGG, Melbourne, Australia, June 28-July 7, 2011.
  15. Miyoshi, T.: Ideas to improve ensemble data assimilation. Invited presentation, IUGG, Melbourne, Australia, June 28-July 7, 2011.
  16. Kunii, M. and T. Miyoshi: Local ensemble transform Kalman filter experiments with the WRF model. Oral presentation, the 15th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, Seattle, January 23-27, 2011.
  17. Miyoshi, T.: On the Gaussian approach to adaptive covariance inflation. Oral presentation, the 15th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, Seattle, January 23-27, 2011.

    - 2010 -
  18. Miyoshi, T. and M. Kunii: Development of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the WRF model. Oral presentation, First International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Numerical Models, Kyoto, Japan, September 29-October 1, 2010.
  19. Miyoshi, T.: Adaptive Localization and Adaptive Inflation Methods with the LETKF. Oral presentation, The Meeting of the Americas of the American Geophysical Union, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, August 8-12, 2010.
  20. Miyoshi, T., E. Kalnay, and H. Li: Observation Error Correlations and Correlated Observations.. Invited presentation, The Meeting of the Americas of the American Geophysical Union, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, August 8-12, 2010.
  21. Enomoto, T., and A. Kuwano-Yoshida: Tornado potential associated with typhoon Shanshan in 2006 estimated from global ensemble simulation. Oral presentation, A42A-04, 2010 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Taipei, Taiwan, June 22-25, 2010.
  22. Enomoto, T., T. Miyoshi, J. Inoue, Q. Moteki, M. Hattori, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, and S. Yamane: AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis 2. Oral presentation, 3rd THORPEX-Asia Science Workshop, Jeju, Korea, June 2-4, 2010.
  23. Miyoshi, T.: Adaptive localization and adaptive inflation methods with the LETKF. Invited presentation, the 5th international workshop on ensemble Kalman filter for model updating, Bergen, Norway, May 18-20, 2010.
  24. Miyoshi, T.: An adaptive covariance inflation method with the LETKF. Oral presentation, the 4th EnKF Workshop, Albany, April 6-9, 2010.
  25. Miyoshi, T., E. Kalnay, and H. Li: Observation error correlations and correlated observations. Poster presentation, the 4th EnKF Workshop, Albany, April 6-9, 2010.
  26. Miyoshi, T.: An adaptive covariance localization method with the LETKF. Poster presentation, the 4th EnKF Workshop, Albany, April 6-9, 2010.
  27. Miyoshi, T.: An adaptive covariance localization method with the LETKF. Oral presentation, the 14th Conference on IOAS/AOLS, Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, Atlanta, January 18-21, 2010.
  28. Miyoshi, T., E. Kalnay, and H. Li: Adaptive estimation of observation error correlation and its treatment with ensemble Kalman filter. Oral presentation, The 5th WMO Symposium on Data Assimilation (WMODA5), Melbourne, October 5-9, 2009.
Last updated on 10/04/2012 18:31
by Takemasa Miyoshi