We will review some of the opportunities that we believe
have not yet been exploited within the DERF “dry patch”:
• Extratropical atmosphere-ocean
coupling: Contrary to what
is commonly stated, AMIP runs are not optimal
(Pena et al, 2002)
• Intraseasonal variability, MJO: It
should be possible to use the
regularity of the MJO to nudge the
atmospheric forecasts (Waliser)
• 15-day ensembles done daily at NCEP, and the
OK-TX drought
(Hong
and Kalnay 2000, 2002)
• Improved initial conditions in coupled ocean atmosphere
ensembles
(Cai et al, 2002)